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[HSBC-Asia Head of Equity Strategy] Asia Earnings to Accelerate Significantly in Second Half, 2023


This video discusses the expected acceleration of earnings in Asia, particularly in the second half of the year, and the investment opportunities and risks in various Asian markets. Here’s a summary of the key points:

Broad-Based Upside: The expected profit increase is not limited to the tech hardware sector but includes consumer and internet sectors, particularly in China. Analysts are looking for acceleration in numbers in the second half, though there are associated risks.

China’s Market: Despite a difficult and murky economic outlook, profit numbers in China are holding up reasonably well. Consensus is looking for 24% earnings growth, with potential downgrades still resulting in 15-20% growth. The global macro situation may also help China’s market.

India and Indonesia: These markets are highlighted as interesting growth stories in the region. India has been seen as a proxy alternative, receiving flows out of China, and both India and Indonesia are considered long-term structural stories.

Japan’s Position: Japan has been another alternative to China, with most funds being overweight in Japan. The video suggests caution in Japan and other Northern Asian markets like Taiwan and Korea, as they are export markets and carry some risk.

Thailand’s Equities: Despite political uncertainty in Thailand, the video suggests that the markets have often performed well regardless of street-level events. The potential return of tourism, particularly from mainland China, could lift Thailand’s market, though recent numbers have been disappointing.

Overall Outlook: The video emphasizes the potential for significant earnings acceleration in Asia, particularly in the second half of the year. It highlights opportunities in China, India, and Indonesia while expressing caution in Japan and Northern Asian markets. The discussion also touches on the potential impact of tourism and political factors on specific markets.

The conversation provides insights into the current state of Asian markets and offers a perspective on investment strategies and expectations for the near future. It reflects a generally optimistic view of growth potential, tempered by awareness of various risks and uncertainties.

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